The Olympics' $40.6 Billion Is a Forecast. L.A. Signed for the Overruns.

LA28 commissioned the study behind that $20.5 billion to $40.6 billion range; the city's Games Agreement carries no such range.

The 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games could generate between $20.5 billion and $40.6 billion in economic output across Greater Los Angeles, a new analysis projects. The work was done by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation's Institute for Applied Economics and commissioned by LA28, the Santa Monica Daily Press reported. The distance between the two ends of that range is about $20 billion, which is to say roughly the whole low end again.

The number with a Los Angeles taxpayer's name on it isn't anywhere in that range. Under the Games Agreement, the City of Los Angeles committed to cover cost overruns, with the state standing behind the city. That commitment doesn't come with a low case and a high case. It comes with a signature.

Look at what the study actually measured: LA28's operational spending, Games-related transportation and security spending, capital investment, spending by non-resident visitors, and spending by independently funded stakeholders. Five streams of money going out, counted as activity coming in. The city's exposure isn't one of the five, because an exposure isn't economic output.

The largest single source of the projected impact is capital. About $8.35 billion in transportation, airport, mobility, accessibility and venue investment has been accelerated or undertaken in connection with the Games, the Santa Monica Daily Press reported from the study. That's money coming out of capital budgets that already existed. Here it's entered on the benefit side.

The strongest thing anyone can say against me is real, and it's the venues. LA28 is taking a no-build approach, and the study credits that reuse directly — genuinely different from Athens or Tokyo, as any defender of these Games will point out, and they're right to.

Here's my answer. Even with the stadiums already standing, that $8.35 billion is the biggest line in the model, and Games-related transportation and security spending gets a category of its own on top of it. Not building venues didn't make any of that free. It moved the money onto other budgets, which is exactly where overruns live.

The rest of the projection wobbles the same way. Combined federal, state and local tax revenue is put at $5.1 billion to $5.9 billion. Around 2 million visitors are expected, spending $1.6 billion to $4.3 billion directly in Los Angeles County — a high end nearly triple the low one.

Stephen Cheung, LAEDC's president and chief executive, said the scale of the activity is significant "even when viewed through a conservative lens." Fine. I'd take the conservative lens at its word and lead with $20.5 billion. We all know which figure ends up on the slide.

Jobs run from roughly 126,000 to 224,000. LA28 has set goals to direct 75% of its addressable procurement to businesses in Greater Los Angeles and 25% to local and small businesses. Goals are worth setting. A goal and a guarantee are different instruments, and only one of them has the city's name on it.

Reynold Hoover, LA28's chief executive, said the impact will be felt "far beyond the moment the last medal is awarded." I agree with him, and that's the problem. So does the overrun clause.

I'm not saying the Games will lose money — nobody knows, least of all a model with a $20 billion spread. I'm saying the projection is the part being publicized and the liability is the part already executed.

The city administrative officer reports on Games-related costs and staffing as they come. When $40.6 billion gets read into the record at City Hall, the follow-up question is the one with a signature under it: what does the guarantee cost if the low end turns out to be the true one?

Source: smdp.com, retrieved September 24, 2026.