Social Security Checks Are Projected to Get Their Biggest Raise Since 2023

The Senior Citizens League forecasts a 3.5% cost-of-living adjustment, up from the 2.8% raise retirees got this year.

Social Security checks are on track for their biggest raise since 2023, with forecasters putting January's cost-of-living bump at about 3.5% to 3.6%.

That range comes from projections gathered by the USA TODAY Network in a story published by Delaware Online on Sept. 30. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the real figure on Oct. 14, 2026.

A forecast isn't a check, though. Nothing is final until then.

For a retiree in Los Angeles living on a fixed monthly payment, the gap between this year's raise and next year's projected one is real money. The 2026 adjustment was 2.8%. A 3.6% raise would add about $75 a month to the average retired worker's benefit, according to an AARP estimate cited by the USA TODAY Network.

Who's predicting what

Three forecasts are doing most of the talking. The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group for older Americans, puts the 2027 raise at 3.5%. AARP says 3.6%. Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security analyst, also says 3.5%, according to the forecasts cited by the USA TODAY Network.

The Senior Citizens League's number actually slipped a little. In a release dated Sept. 11, after August's inflation data came out, the group said its 3.5% estimate was a tenth of a point lower than the prediction it made a month earlier. Even so, that's 0.7 points above the 2.8% raise for 2026, and a full point above 2025's 2.5%.

What it could mean on your check

Here's how the projected range plays out on a few monthly benefit amounts. The 3.6% figures match the examples in the Delaware Online story; we ran the 3.5% figures from the same starting amounts.

• $1,000 a month: about $35 to $36 more
• $1,500 a month: about $52.50 to $54 more
• $2,000 a month: about $70 to $72 more
• $2,500 a month: about $87.50 to $90 more
• $3,000 a month: about $105 to $108 more

Don't spend all of it yet. The story notes that higher Medicare Part B premiums could swallow part of the raise for people enrolled in that coverage.

How the number gets made

The adjustment isn't a judgment call by anyone in Washington. It's tied to a federal inflation measure, the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, known as CPI-W, and the formula looks at prices in July, August and September 2026. That's why everyone's waiting on September's numbers. The forecasters only had data through August when they made their calls.

Inflation, in other words, gets the final vote.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September's consumer price data first. Then the Social Security Administration is expected to post the official 2027 cost-of-living adjustment on Oct. 14.